live-rpi.com - Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - - Blog


Tweet
Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Coppin St.

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:343.0
Current RPI:343
Expected SOS:317
Current SOS:317
Current Record:5-27
Expected Record:5-27
Current Conf Record:5-12
Expected Conf Record:5-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:5-17
Current OOC Record:0-15
Expected OOC Record:0-15
Expected OOC RPI:333
Expected OOC SOS:129



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
5-27343.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Coppin St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Oregon (72.0)P12A70-54L0%0.0
11-12East Carolina (274.0)AmerA76-50L0%0.0
11-16Cincinnati (6.0)AmerA97-54L0%0.0
11-17Cleveland St. (282.0)HorzA80-56L0%0.0
11-19Rutgers (203.0)B10A64-39L0%0.0
11-21Central Connecticut (263.0)NECA74-71L0%0.0
12-1Ohio (204.0)MACA80-37L0%0.0
12-3Georgetown (169.0)BEA76-60L0%0.0
12-6Navy (200.0)PatH53-70L0%0.0
12-9Connecticut (123.0)AmerA72-59L0%0.0
12-12UMBC (111.0)AEA81-74L0%0.0
12-20West Virginia (27.0)B12A77-38L0%0.0
12-22Mount St. Mary's (225.0)NECH53-66L0%0.0
12-27Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA76-62L0%0.0
12-30Penn St. (77.0)B10A88-43L0%0.0
1-3Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA75-67L0%0.0
1-6Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH71-80L0%0.0
1-8Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH79-78W100%0.0
1-13North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACA81-61L0%0.0
1-15North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACA60-47L0%0.0
1-20Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH80-73W100%0.0
1-27South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH73-65W100%0.0
1-29Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH71-68W100%0.0
1-31Hampton (237.0)MEACA70-59L0%0.0
2-3Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACA80-60L0%0.0
2-5South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACA60-84W100%0.0
2-12Hampton (237.0)MEACH79-82L0%0.0
2-17Bethune Cookman (288.0)MEACH85-89L0%0.0
2-19Delaware St. (351.0)MEACA69-51L0%0.0
2-26Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA69-56L0%0.0
3-1Howard (339.0)MEACH71-78L0%0.0
3-6North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACN60-48L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Coppin St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Coppin St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Coppin St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Coppin St.MEAC26.0626.0615.0815.08-18.20-18.20
Morgan St.MEAC3.813.8135.7135.71-1.09-1.09
North Carolina CentralMEAC3.743.7448.2848.28-0.13-0.13
HamptonMEAC3.713.7148.2848.28-0.13-0.13
South Carolina St.MEAC3.663.6628.5728.57-1.57-1.57
Bethune CookmanMEAC3.663.6650.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.282.2854.8454.840.220.22
Florida A&MMEAC2.232.2325.0025.00-1.11-1.11
Savannah St.MEAC2.222.2241.3841.38-0.38-0.38
Norfolk St.MEAC2.202.2041.3841.38-0.38-0.38
Delaware St.MEAC2.202.203.453.45-2.05-2.05
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC2.182.1817.2417.24-1.43-1.43
HowardMEAC2.152.1523.3323.33-1.14-1.14
East CarolinaAmer1.761.7631.0331.03-0.67-0.67
Mount St. Mary'sNEC1.721.7251.7251.720.060.06
Central ConnecticutNEC1.711.7141.9441.94-0.28-0.28
CincinnatiAmer1.691.6987.8887.881.281.28
ConnecticutAmer1.681.6841.9441.94-0.27-0.27
GeorgetownBE1.661.6648.2848.28-0.06-0.06
Cleveland St.Horz1.661.6630.3030.30-0.65-0.65
RutgersB101.661.6640.6240.62-0.31-0.31
Georgia TechACC1.641.6438.7138.71-0.37-0.37
NavyPat1.611.6160.0060.000.320.32
West VirginiaB121.611.6169.7069.700.640.64
OhioMAC1.591.5941.3841.38-0.27-0.27
UMBCAE1.591.5966.6766.670.530.53
OregonP121.591.5963.6463.640.430.43
Penn St.B101.591.5960.6160.610.340.34
South FloridaAmer0.230.2331.2531.25-0.09-0.09
UCFAmer0.220.2259.3859.380.040.04
SMUAmer0.200.2051.5251.520.010.01
MemphisAmer0.170.1761.7661.760.040.04
JacksonvilleASun0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
Robert MorrisNEC0.150.1548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
Grand CanyonWAC0.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
BinghamtonAE0.150.1531.0331.03-0.06-0.06
AmericanPat0.150.1520.0020.00-0.09-0.09
George WashingtonA100.150.1545.4545.45-0.01-0.01
BryantNEC0.150.159.689.68-0.12-0.12
VirginiaACC0.150.1593.9493.940.130.13
PittsburghACC0.150.1525.0025.00-0.07-0.07
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.150.1537.9337.93-0.04-0.04
MarylandB100.150.1558.0658.060.020.02
Wichita St.Amer0.150.1578.1278.120.080.08
HoustonAmer0.150.1578.7978.790.080.08
UCLAP120.150.1565.6265.620.050.05
Michigan St.B100.140.1487.8887.880.110.11
Boston UniversityPat0.130.1346.6746.67-0.01-0.01
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC0.130.1343.3343.33-0.02-0.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.130.1337.9337.93-0.03-0.03
DePaulBE0.130.1335.4835.48-0.04-0.04
George MasonA100.130.1348.4848.48-0.00-0.00
XavierBE0.130.1384.8584.850.090.09
Boston CollegeACC0.130.1355.8855.880.010.01
WagnerNEC0.130.1370.0070.000.050.05
Stony BrookAE0.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TulsaAmer0.120.1261.2961.290.030.03
RiderMAAC0.120.1270.9770.970.050.05
HartfordAE0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
Washington St.P120.120.1238.7138.71-0.03-0.03
TempleAmer0.120.1253.1253.120.010.01
IllinoisB100.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
NebraskaB100.120.1268.7568.750.040.04
NorthwesternB100.120.1245.1645.16-0.01-0.01
PurdueB100.120.1282.3582.350.080.08
Ohio St.B100.120.1275.0075.000.060.06
Grambling St.SWAC0.100.1053.3353.330.010.01
North TexasCUSA0.100.1043.3343.33-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.100.1046.8846.88-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.100.1048.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LIU BrooklynNEC0.100.1051.5251.520.000.00
Sacred HeartNEC0.100.1030.0030.00-0.04-0.04
St. Francis PANEC0.100.1057.1457.140.010.01
MaineAE0.100.1013.3313.33-0.07-0.07
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.100.1041.3841.38-0.02-0.02
ColgatePat0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
UMass LowellAE0.100.1037.9337.93-0.02-0.02
North Carolina St.ACC0.100.1065.6265.620.030.03
TulaneAmer0.100.1045.1645.16-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.100.1071.8871.880.040.04
WisconsinB100.100.1045.4545.45-0.01-0.01
WashingtonP120.100.1062.5062.500.020.02
ArizonaP120.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
IndianaB100.100.1051.6151.610.000.00
BaylorB120.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
Northern KentuckyHorz0.090.0968.9768.970.040.04
Wright St.Horz0.090.0971.8871.880.040.04
Bowling GreenMAC0.080.0846.6746.67-0.01-0.01
CreightonBE0.080.0864.5264.520.020.02
MarquetteBE0.080.0859.3859.380.010.01
Miami OHMAC0.080.0845.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TowsonCAA0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
DuquesneA100.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
PresbyterianBSth0.080.0827.5927.59-0.03-0.03
VillanovaBE0.080.0888.2488.240.060.06
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Loyola MDPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
PennIvy0.080.0874.1974.190.040.04
William & MaryCAA0.080.0858.6258.620.010.01
Seton HallBE0.080.0865.6265.620.020.02
ArmyPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Holy CrossPat0.080.0838.7138.71-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.080.0878.7978.790.040.04
AkronMAC0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.080.0875.7675.760.040.04
Central ArkansasSlnd0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
ToledoMAC0.080.0866.6766.670.030.03
Notre DameACC0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
SyracuseACC0.070.0760.6160.610.020.02
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Miami FLACC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
Ball St.MAC0.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
ColumbiaIvy0.070.0726.9226.92-0.03-0.03
Alabama St.SWAC0.070.0725.8125.81-0.03-0.03
Iowa St.B120.070.0741.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.070.0762.5062.500.020.02
FordhamA100.070.0729.0329.03-0.03-0.03
MinnesotaB100.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Green BayHorz0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
IowaB100.070.0742.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
KansasB120.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
OaklandHorz0.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
OklahomaB120.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
USCP120.070.0767.6567.650.020.02
Youngstown St.Horz0.070.0720.0020.00-0.04-0.04
Alabama A&MSWAC0.050.059.689.68-0.04-0.04
ButlerBE0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Cal PolyBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.050.0514.2914.29-0.04-0.04
Central MichiganMAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
College of CharlestonCAA0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
FurmanSC0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Kennesaw St.ASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Old DominionCUSA0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
ProvidenceBE0.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
StetsonASun0.050.0528.5728.57-0.02-0.02
WinthropBSth0.050.0557.1457.140.010.01
DelawareCAA0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
LibertyBSth0.050.0554.8454.840.000.00
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
AuburnSEC0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
Northern IllinoisMAC0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
RadfordBSth0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
AlbanyAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
BucknellPat0.050.0573.5373.530.020.02
Coastal CarolinaSB0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
LafayettePat0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
Missouri St.MVC0.050.0553.1253.120.000.00
New HampshireAE0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Northern ArizonaBSky0.050.0513.3313.33-0.04-0.04
Tennessee MartinOVC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
The CitadelSC0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
NiagaraMAAC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.050.0545.4545.45-0.00-0.00
RichmondA100.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
MichiganB100.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
NJITASun0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.010.01
DetroitHorz0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
IUPUIHorz0.050.0532.1432.14-0.02-0.02
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.050.0548.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Oklahoma St.B120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
Oregon St.P120.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
UtahP120.050.0563.3363.330.010.01
CharlotteCUSA0.030.0317.8617.86-0.02-0.02
DaytonA100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
DrakeMVC0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.030.0331.0331.03-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.030.0361.2961.290.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.030.0320.0020.00-0.02-0.02
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.030.0384.3884.380.020.02
San DiegoWCC0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
St. BonaventureA100.030.0378.1278.120.010.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Western KentuckyCUSA0.030.0369.7069.700.010.01
Chicago St.WAC0.030.033.333.33-0.02-0.02
DenverSum0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.030.0364.5264.520.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.030.0388.2488.240.020.02
HawaiiBW0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
LipscombASun0.030.0368.9768.970.010.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
ArkansasSEC0.020.0267.6567.650.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
GeorgiaSEC0.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
MonmouthMAAC0.020.0235.4835.48-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.020.0271.4371.430.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
Tennessee St.OVC0.020.0246.4346.43-0.00-0.00
WoffordSC0.020.0260.0060.000.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Murray St.OVC0.020.0282.7682.760.020.02
North Dakota St.Sum0.020.0241.3841.38-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
UNLVMWC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.020.0240.0040.00-0.00-0.00
Boise St.MWC0.020.0273.3373.330.010.01
CaliforniaP120.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Colorado St.MWC0.020.0232.2632.26-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
Fresno St.MWC0.020.0263.3363.330.010.01
KentuckySEC0.020.0270.5970.590.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
MaristMAAC0.020.0219.3519.35-0.01-0.01
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
MontanaBSky0.020.0277.4277.420.010.01
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
Portland St.BSky0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
StanfordP120.020.0254.5554.550.000.00
Texas SouthernSWAC0.020.0244.1244.12-0.00-0.00
Western CarolinaSC0.020.0236.6736.67-0.01-0.01
WyomingMWC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00